がん罹患死亡寄与率Cancer Incidence risi contribution to Mortality Risk Cancer Prevensti
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胃がん罹患リスク死亡リスク寄与率
Gastric Cancer Incidence Risk Contribution to Mortality Risk
死亡時にその原因がどの程度胃がんに罹患したことが原因になっているのかを見てみましょう。これは、胃がんによる死亡率とは、少々違い、死亡というイヴェントが発生した場合のその原因として胃がんの占める平均割合です。これは、あくまでも全てが平均的な日本人がいた場合のその平均余命を厚生労働省の統計データよりとり、その余命にがん情報サービス、がん登録・統計の年代別死亡率と罹患率を用いて計算し、それにベイズの定理を適応し、罹患後の死亡リスクの事後確率を求めたものになります。
これにより、胃がんに罹患することがどの程度、死亡につながるかのおおよその傾向を得ることができます。罹患率、死亡率などを換算しますので、罹患率が高く、罹患後の死亡割合が高いものが数値が大きくなります。ざっくり言えば、死亡リスクの中で胃がんによる死亡リスクがどの程度占めているかを表しており、どの程度心配すべきものかの簡単な指標となりえます。０歳のリスク換算で男性6.3％、女性3.8となっており、死亡リスクの大きな原因と考えることができます。肺がんの男性9.7、女性4.5％より、低く抑えられているのは、胃がんの方が罹患リスクは高いけれども、治癒の可能性が高いことにいきんしています。
また、実際には個性があり、胃がんの場合は特に、ピロリ菌感染とペプシノーゲンの反応の組み合わせである、ABC検査や、塩分の摂取量、喫煙の有無、そしてストレス等様々な要因によりそのリスクは変化するため、この値が出発点であり、この値から個人のリスクを推測していくことになります。
興味深いことに 男性は、死亡リスクは、60歳(3.89％)が最もリスクが高く、罹患リスクは、50歳(11.08％)、女性は死亡リスクは、60歳(2.12%)、罹患した場合のは、35歳(5.21%)が最もリスクが高くなっています。
一方、死亡時罹患寄与率は、おおよそ年齢とともに低くなっており、実際には高齢になるとがんでの死亡の可能性が低くなるということででょうか。
罹患リスク、死亡リスクは男女差が大きく、男性の方が罹りやすいですが、死亡時罹患寄与率も同様の傾向を示しています。つまり、死亡時罹患寄与率の男女間で大きな差は、罹患リスクの差に起因しています。その原因は、喫煙率、肉体的なストレスなどが候補として上がりますが、対策を立てるには、明確にされる必要があります。
| 男性 | 女性 | |||||
| 年齢 (歳) |
死亡 リスク |
罹患 リスク |
死亡時 罹患 寄与率 |
死亡 リスク |
罹患 リスク |
死亡時 罹患 寄与率 |
| 0 | 3.31% | 10.18% | 6.341% | 1.93% | 5.08% | 3.752% |
| 1 | 3.36% | 10.30% | 6.315% | 1.96% | 5.13% | 3.742% |
| 2 | 3.37% | 10.32% | 6.316% | 1.97% | 5.13% | 3.743% |
| 3 | 3.38% | 10.33% | 6.325% | 1.97% | 5.14% | 3.746% |
| 4 | 3.38% | 10.34% | 6.325% | 1.98% | 5.14% | 3.749% |
| 5 | 3.38% | 10.35% | 6.330% | 1.98% | 5.15% | 3.752% |
| 6 | 3.38% | 10.35% | 6.331% | 1.98% | 5.15% | 3.752% |
| 7 | 3.39% | 10.36% | 6.331% | 1.98% | 5.15% | 3.752% |
| 8 | 3.39% | 10.37% | 6.330% | 1.98% | 5.15% | 3.752% |
| 9 | 3.39% | 10.37% | 6.329% | 1.98% | 5.15% | 3.752% |
| 10 | 3.39% | 10.37% | 6.330% | 1.98% | 5.15% | 3.752% |
| 11 | 3.40% | 10.38% | 6.330% | 1.98% | 5.15% | 3.752% |
| 12 | 3.40% | 10.38% | 6.331% | 1.98% | 5.15% | 3.753% |
| 13 | 3.40% | 10.39% | 6.330% | 1.99% | 5.16% | 3.752% |
| 14 | 3.40% | 10.39% | 6.329% | 1.99% | 5.16% | 3.753% |
| 15 | 3.41% | 10.40% | 6.328% | 1.99% | 5.16% | 3.752% |
| 16 | 3.41% | 10.41% | 6.330% | 1.99% | 5.16% | 3.753% |
| 17 | 3.41% | 10.42% | 6.331% | 1.99% | 5.16% | 3.753% |
| 18 | 3.42% | 10.43% | 6.331% | 1.99% | 5.17% | 3.754% |
| 19 | 3.43% | 10.44% | 6.330% | 2.00% | 5.17% | 3.754% |
| 20 | 3.44% | 10.47% | 6.328% | 2.00% | 5.17% | 3.754% |
| 21 | 3.44% | 10.48% | 6.330% | 2.00% | 5.17% | 3.755% |
| 22 | 3.45% | 10.51% | 6.329% | 2.00% | 5.18% | 3.754% |
| 23 | 3.46% | 10.53% | 6.329% | 2.01% | 5.18% | 3.755% |
| 24 | 3.47% | 10.55% | 6.330% | 2.01% | 5.19% | 3.755% |
| 25 | 3.48% | 10.57% | 6.330% | 2.01% | 5.19% | 3.756% |
| 26 | 3.50% | 10.60% | 6.328% | 2.02% | 5.19% | 3.755% |
| 27 | 3.50% | 10.62% | 6.328% | 2.02% | 5.20% | 3.754% |
| 28 | 3.51% | 10.64% | 6.328% | 2.02% | 5.20% | 3.753% |
| 29 | 3.52% | 10.66% | 6.328% | 2.02% | 5.20% | 3.752% |
| 30 | 3.53% | 10.68% | 6.329% | 2.03% | 5.20% | 3.751% |
| 31 | 3.54% | 10.70% | 6.327% | 2.03% | 5.20% | 3.750% |
| 32 | 3.55% | 10.72% | 6.326% | 2.03% | 5.21% | 3.748% |
| 33 | 3.56% | 10.74% | 6.326% | 2.04% | 5.21% | 3.747% |
| 34 | 3.57% | 10.76% | 6.324% | 2.04% | 5.21% | 3.745% |
| 35 | 3.58% | 10.78% | 6.324% | 2.04% | 5.21% | 3.744% |
| 36 | 3.59% | 10.80% | 6.325% | 2.04% | 5.21% | 3.741% |
| 37 | 3.60% | 10.82% | 6.324% | 2.05% | 5.21% | 3.738% |
| 38 | 3.61% | 10.84% | 6.325% | 2.05% | 5.20% | 3.735% |
| 39 | 3.62% | 10.86% | 6.324% | 2.05% | 5.20% | 3.732% |
| 40 | 3.63% | 10.89% | 6.321% | 2.06% | 5.20% | 3.728% |
| 41 | 3.64% | 10.90% | 6.322% | 2.06% | 5.20% | 3.725% |
| 42 | 3.65% | 10.92% | 6.321% | 2.06% | 5.20% | 3.722% |
| 43 | 3.67% | 10.95% | 6.321% | 2.06% | 5.20% | 3.719% |
| 44 | 3.68% | 10.97% | 6.320% | 2.07% | 5.20% | 3.715% |
| 45 | 3.69% | 10.99% | 6.318% | 2.07% | 5.20% | 3.711% |
| 46 | 3.71% | 11.01% | 6.316% | 2.08% | 5.18% | 3.706% |
| 47 | 3.72% | 11.02% | 6.317% | 2.08% | 5.17% | 3.700% |
| 48 | 3.74% | 11.04% | 6.316% | 2.08% | 5.16% | 3.695% |
| 49 | 3.76% | 11.06% | 6.313% | 2.09% | 5.16% | 3.689% |
| 50 | 3.77% | 11.08% | 6.310% | 2.10% | 5.15% | 3.684% |
| 51 | 3.79% | 11.07% | 6.302% | 2.10% | 5.13% | 3.675% |
| 52 | 3.80% | 11.06% | 6.295% | 2.10% | 5.11% | 3.666% |
| 53 | 3.81% | 11.06% | 6.286% | 2.11% | 5.10% | 3.657% |
| 54 | 3.83% | 11.06% | 6.275% | 2.11% | 5.08% | 3.648% |
| 55 | 3.85% | 11.07% | 6.265% | 2.12% | 5.07% | 3.639% |
| 56 | 3.85% | 11.01% | 6.244% | 2.12% | 5.04% | 3.624% |
| 57 | 3.86% | 10.95% | 6.222% | 2.12% | 5.01% | 3.610% |
| 58 | 3.87% | 10.91% | 6.199% | 2.12% | 4.98% | 3.596% |
| 59 | 3.88% | 10.86% | 6.176% | 2.12% | 4.95% | 3.581% |
| 60 | 3.89% | 10.82% | 6.152% | 2.12% | 4.92% | 3.567% |
| 61 | 3.88% | 10.70% | 6.115% | 2.12% | 4.87% | 3.548% |
| 62 | 3.87% | 10.59% | 6.077% | 2.12% | 4.82% | 3.529% |
| 63 | 3.86% | 10.48% | 6.038% | 2.12% | 4.77% | 3.510% |
| 64 | 3.86% | 10.39% | 5.997% | 2.11% | 4.72% | 3.491% |
| 65 | 3.87% | 10.30% | 5.956% | 2.11% | 4.68% | 3.472% |
| 66 | 3.83% | 10.12% | 5.894% | 2.11% | 4.61% | 3.448% |
| 67 | 3.80% | 9.94% | 5.830% | 2.10% | 4.54% | 3.425% |
| 68 | 3.77% | 9.76% | 5.766% | 2.10% | 4.47% | 3.408% |
| 69 | 3.79% | 9.60% | 5.662% | 2.09% | 4.39% | 3.378% |
| 70 | 3.81% | 9.44% | 5.556% | 2.09% | 4.33% | 3.355% |
| 71 | 3.78% | 9.14% | 5.441% | 2.08% | 4.22% | 3.331% |
| 72 | 3.77% | 8.85% | 5.328% | 2.07% | 4.12% | 3.272% |
| 73 | 3.75% | 8.56% | 5.217% | 2.05% | 4.02% | 3.199% |
| 74 | 3.75% | 8.28% | 5.108% | 2.05% | 3.92% | 3.122% |
| 75 | 3.74% | 8.01% | 5.002% | 2.04% | 3.83% | 3.046% |
| 76 | 3.67% | 7.62% | 4.893% | 2.01% | 3.68% | 2.970% |
| 77 | 3.60% | 7.26% | 4.783% | 1.99% | 3.54% | 2.894% |
| 78 | 3.55% | 6.90% | 4.672% | 1.97% | 3.40% | 2.816% |
| 79 | 3.50% | 6.56% | 4.562% | 1.95% | 3.27% | 2.736% |
| 80 | 3.47% | 6.24% | 4.453% | 1.94% | 3.14% | 2.655% |
| 81 | 3.35% | 5.83% | 4.403% | 1.89% | 2.99% | 2.579% |
| 82 | 3.26% | 5.45% | 4.349% | 1.85% | 2.84% | 2.500% |
| 83 | 3.17% | 5.09% | 4.213% | 1.81% | 2.70% | 2.419% |
| 84 | 3.10% | 4.75% | 3.941% | 1.78% | 2.57% | 2.336% |
| 85 | 3.03% | 4.42% | 3.685% | 1.75% | 2.45% | 2.253% |
| 86 | 2.83% | 4.12% | 3.452% | 1.63% | 2.27% | 2.132% |
| 87 | 2.63% | 3.83% | 3.215% | 1.51% | 2.10% | 2.003% |
| 88 | 2.45% | 3.56% | 2.974% | 1.39% | 1.95% | 1.870% |
| 89 | 2.28% | 3.31% | 2.734% | 1.29% | 1.80% | 1.702% |
| 90 | 2.12% | 3.08% | 2.499% | 1.19% | 1.66% | 1.460% |
| 91 | 1.96% | 2.86% | 2.484% | 1.10% | 1.53% | 1.346% |
| 92 | 1.83% | 2.66% | 2.232% | 1.01% | 1.41% | 1.228% |
| 93 | 1.68% | 2.45% | 1.977% | 0.93% | 1.30% | 1.111% |
| 94 | 1.58% | 2.30% | 1.772% | 0.86% | 1.20% | 0.997% |
| 95 | 1.47% | 2.14% | 1.570% | 0.79% | 1.11% | 0.890% |
| 96 | 1.37% | 1.99% | 1.564% | 0.73% | 1.02% | 0.890% |
| 97 | 1.27% | 1.85% | 1.570% | 0.67% | 0.93% | 0.857% |
| 98 | 1.18% | 1.72% | 1.442% | 0.61% | 0.86% | 0.738% |
| 99 | 1.09% | 1.59% | 1.229% | 0.56% | 0.78% | 0.632% |
| 100 | 1.02% | 1.48% | 1.048% | 0.51% | 0.71% | 0.538% |
| 101 | 0.95% | 1.38% | 1.048% | 0.47% | 0.65% | 0.538% |
| 102 | 0.88% | 1.28% | 1.048% | 0.43% | 0.59% | 0.538% |
| 103 | 0.82% | 1.19% | 1.048% | 0.39% | 0.54% | 0.538% |
| 104 | 0.76% | 1.10% | 1.048% | 0.35% | 0.49% | 0.538% |
| 105 | 0.71% | 1.03% | 1.048% | 0.32% | 0.45% | 0.538% |
