がん死亡リスク 対 罹患リスクCancer Mortality Risk vs Incidence Ris Cancer Prevensti
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大腸がん死亡リスク 対 罹患リスク
Colorectal Cancer Mortality Risk vs Incidence Risk
大腸がんに罹患した場合、死亡する平均リスクを見てみましょう。これは、あくまでも全てが平均的な日本人がいた場合のその平均余命を厚生労働省の統計データよりとり、その余命にがん情報サービス、がん登録・統計の年代別死亡率と罹患率を用いて計算し、その比を計算したものです。これにより、罹患した場合の回復しやすさを推定することができます。このデータは、一生涯のリスクであり、よく使われる5年生存率ではありません。また、実際には個性があり、大腸がんの場合は特に、大腸がんの場合は特に、肥満、赤肉・加工肉の摂取量、そしてストレス等様々な要因によりそのリスクは変化するため、この値が出発点であり、この値から個人のリスクを推測していくことになります。
興味深いことに 男性は、死亡リスクは、55歳(2.8％)が最もリスクが高く、罹患リスクは、45歳(8.6％)、女性は死亡リスクは550歳(2.6%)、罹患は、40歳(6.5%)が最もリスクが高くなっています。
一方、死亡リスク対罹患リスクの比は、男女間で大きな差は、ありません。やや女性が高くなっていますが、大きな差と考えるほどの差ではないと思います。全体的に罹患後の死亡リスクは女性が高くなっています。
また、年齢とともに高くなっており、現状のがん治療が基本的には体力勝負になっているということででょうか。
先日、がん情報センターが主要５部位(胃、大腸、肝臓、肺、乳房)の５年生存率が平均で64.3％で、胃がんの場合は71.2％、大腸72.1％、肝臓35.9％、肺39.4％、女性乳房92.2％であるとの報告をしていましたが、こちらのデータを見ると、かなり離れた値となっており、５年生存率が必ずしも完治を表しているわけではないとの認識をする必要性を感じます。特に、年齢が上がるごとにその数値とは離れていき、ある程度の年齢になると50％近くの死亡リスクになっており、５年生存率のみで治癒の良し悪しを判断することには疑問を感じます。
| 男性大腸がん | 女性大腸がん | |||||
| 年齢 | 死亡 リスク |
罹患 リスク |
死亡/罹患 | 死亡 リスク |
罹患 リスク |
死亡/罹患 |
| 0 | 2.53% | 8.20% | 30.81% | 2.36% | 6.30% | 37.52% |
| 1 | 2.56% | 8.28% | 30.98% | 2.41% | 6.37% | 37.82% |
| 2 | 2.57% | 8.29% | 31.00% | 2.42% | 6.38% | 37.88% |
| 3 | 2.58% | 8.30% | 31.03% | 2.42% | 6.38% | 37.91% |
| 4 | 2.58% | 8.31% | 31.03% | 2.42% | 6.39% | 37.93% |
| 5 | 2.58% | 8.31% | 31.04% | 2.43% | 6.39% | 37.95% |
| 6 | 2.58% | 8.31% | 31.04% | 2.43% | 6.39% | 37.95% |
| 7 | 2.58% | 8.32% | 31.05% | 2.43% | 6.40% | 37.96% |
| 8 | 2.58% | 8.32% | 31.06% | 2.43% | 6.40% | 37.96% |
| 9 | 2.59% | 8.33% | 31.07% | 2.43% | 6.40% | 37.98% |
| 10 | 2.59% | 8.33% | 31.07% | 2.43% | 6.40% | 37.98% |
| 11 | 2.59% | 8.33% | 31.08% | 2.43% | 6.40% | 38.00% |
| 12 | 2.59% | 8.33% | 31.08% | 2.43% | 6.40% | 38.00% |
| 13 | 2.59% | 8.34% | 31.09% | 2.44% | 6.41% | 38.01% |
| 14 | 2.59% | 8.34% | 31.10% | 2.44% | 6.41% | 38.01% |
| 15 | 2.60% | 8.35% | 31.11% | 2.44% | 6.41% | 38.03% |
| 16 | 2.60% | 8.35% | 31.11% | 2.44% | 6.41% | 38.03% |
| 17 | 2.60% | 8.35% | 31.12% | 2.44% | 6.41% | 38.05% |
| 18 | 2.60% | 8.36% | 31.14% | 2.44% | 6.42% | 38.07% |
| 19 | 2.61% | 8.37% | 31.16% | 2.45% | 6.42% | 38.09% |
| 20 | 2.62% | 8.39% | 31.19% | 2.45% | 6.42% | 38.11% |
| 21 | 2.62% | 8.39% | 31.20% | 2.45% | 6.43% | 38.12% |
| 22 | 2.63% | 8.41% | 31.24% | 2.46% | 6.43% | 38.16% |
| 23 | 2.63% | 8.43% | 31.27% | 2.46% | 6.44% | 38.18% |
| 24 | 2.64% | 8.44% | 31.29% | 2.46% | 6.44% | 38.21% |
| 25 | 2.65% | 8.45% | 31.32% | 2.46% | 6.45% | 38.23% |
| 26 | 2.66% | 8.47% | 31.36% | 2.47% | 6.45% | 38.27% |
| 27 | 2.66% | 8.48% | 31.40% | 2.47% | 6.46% | 38.31% |
| 28 | 2.67% | 8.49% | 31.43% | 2.48% | 6.46% | 38.34% |
| 29 | 2.67% | 8.50% | 31.47% | 2.48% | 6.47% | 38.38% |
| 30 | 2.68% | 8.51% | 31.50% | 2.49% | 6.47% | 38.42% |
| 31 | 2.69% | 8.52% | 31.54% | 2.49% | 6.47% | 38.47% |
| 32 | 2.69% | 8.53% | 31.58% | 2.49% | 6.48% | 38.52% |
| 33 | 2.70% | 8.54% | 31.61% | 2.50% | 6.48% | 38.58% |
| 34 | 2.71% | 8.56% | 31.65% | 2.50% | 6.48% | 38.63% |
| 35 | 2.71% | 8.57% | 31.68% | 2.51% | 6.48% | 38.68% |
| 36 | 2.72% | 8.57% | 31.72% | 2.51% | 6.48% | 38.74% |
| 37 | 2.72% | 8.58% | 31.77% | 2.52% | 6.49% | 38.81% |
| 38 | 2.73% | 8.58% | 31.82% | 2.52% | 6.48% | 38.86% |
| 39 | 2.74% | 8.59% | 31.87% | 2.53% | 6.49% | 38.93% |
| 40 | 2.75% | 8.60% | 31.93% | 2.53% | 6.49% | 39.01% |
| 41 | 2.75% | 8.60% | 31.99% | 2.54% | 6.49% | 39.11% |
| 42 | 2.76% | 8.60% | 32.06% | 2.54% | 6.48% | 39.21% |
| 43 | 2.76% | 8.61% | 32.12% | 2.55% | 6.47% | 39.32% |
| 44 | 2.77% | 8.61% | 32.19% | 2.55% | 6.47% | 39.44% |
| 45 | 2.78% | 8.62% | 32.27% | 2.56% | 6.47% | 39.56% |
| 46 | 2.79% | 8.61% | 32.38% | 2.56% | 6.45% | 39.74% |
| 47 | 2.79% | 8.60% | 32.49% | 2.57% | 6.43% | 39.95% |
| 48 | 2.80% | 8.59% | 32.60% | 2.57% | 6.41% | 40.14% |
| 49 | 2.81% | 8.58% | 32.73% | 2.58% | 6.39% | 40.37% |
| 50 | 2.82% | 8.58% | 32.85% | 2.59% | 6.38% | 40.58% |
| 51 | 2.82% | 8.55% | 33.01% | 2.59% | 6.35% | 40.82% |
| 52 | 2.82% | 8.51% | 33.17% | 2.60% | 6.32% | 41.07% |
| 53 | 2.83% | 8.49% | 33.34% | 2.60% | 6.29% | 41.32% |
| 54 | 2.84% | 8.46% | 33.52% | 2.61% | 6.27% | 41.58% |
| 55 | 2.84% | 8.44% | 33.70% | 2.61% | 6.25% | 41.85% |
| 56 | 2.84% | 8.36% | 33.95% | 2.61% | 6.20% | 42.18% |
| 57 | 2.83% | 8.29% | 34.21% | 2.61% | 6.14% | 42.50% |
| 58 | 2.83% | 8.22% | 34.48% | 2.61% | 6.09% | 42.84% |
| 59 | 2.83% | 8.14% | 34.76% | 2.61% | 6.05% | 43.20% |
| 60 | 2.83% | 8.08% | 35.04% | 2.61% | 6.00% | 43.56% |
| 61 | 2.81% | 7.94% | 35.39% | 2.61% | 5.93% | 43.97% |
| 62 | 2.79% | 7.81% | 35.76% | 2.60% | 5.86% | 44.40% |
| 63 | 2.78% | 7.68% | 36.14% | 2.60% | 5.79% | 44.85% |
| 64 | 2.76% | 7.56% | 36.55% | 2.59% | 5.72% | 45.30% |
| 65 | 2.75% | 7.45% | 36.98% | 2.59% | 5.66% | 45.78% |
| 66 | 2.72% | 7.27% | 37.37% | 2.58% | 5.56% | 46.39% |
| 67 | 2.68% | 7.10% | 37.77% | 2.57% | 5.46% | 47.03% |
| 68 | 2.65% | 6.93% | 38.20% | 2.56% | 5.37% | 47.71% |
| 69 | 2.65% | 6.78% | 39.01% | 2.55% | 5.27% | 48.38% |
| 70 | 2.65% | 6.64% | 39.91% | 2.55% | 5.18% | 49.11% |
| 71 | 2.63% | 6.42% | 40.96% | 2.52% | 5.05% | 49.98% |
| 72 | 2.61% | 6.20% | 42.11% | 2.51% | 4.92% | 50.90% |
| 73 | 2.60% | 5.99% | 43.35% | 2.49% | 4.79% | 51.88% |
| 74 | 2.59% | 5.79% | 44.71% | 2.47% | 4.67% | 52.93% |
| 75 | 2.58% | 5.59% | 46.19% | 2.46% | 4.56% | 54.05% |
| 76 | 2.54% | 5.32% | 47.70% | 2.43% | 4.39% | 55.30% |
| 77 | 2.51% | 5.07% | 49.41% | 2.40% | 4.23% | 56.66% |
| 78 | 2.48% | 4.83% | 51.32% | 2.37% | 4.08% | 58.15% |
| 79 | 2.45% | 4.59% | 53.45% | 2.35% | 3.93% | 59.76% |
| 80 | 2.45% | 4.38% | 55.86% | 2.34% | 3.80% | 61.51% |
| 81 | 2.37% | 4.14% | 57.36% | 2.28% | 3.64% | 62.61% |
| 82 | 2.31% | 3.92% | 59.07% | 2.23% | 3.49% | 63.80% |
| 83 | 2.26% | 3.71% | 61.01% | 2.18% | 3.35% | 65.12% |
| 84 | 2.22% | 3.52% | 63.19% | 2.14% | 3.22% | 66.55% |
| 85 | 2.19% | 3.34% | 65.62% | 2.11% | 3.10% | 68.11% |
| 86 | 2.04% | 3.11% | 65.62% | 1.96% | 2.88% | 68.11% |
| 87 | 1.90% | 2.89% | 65.62% | 1.81% | 2.66% | 68.11% |
| 88 | 1.76% | 2.69% | 65.62% | 1.68% | 2.46% | 68.11% |
| 89 | 1.64% | 2.50% | 65.62% | 1.55% | 2.27% | 68.11% |
| 90 | 1.53% | 2.32% | 65.62% | 1.43% | 2.10% | 68.11% |
| 91 | 1.42% | 2.16% | 65.62% | 1.32% | 1.94% | 68.11% |
| 92 | 1.32% | 2.01% | 65.62% | 1.22% | 1.79% | 68.11% |
| 93 | 1.21% | 1.85% | 65.62% | 1.12% | 1.65% | 68.11% |
| 94 | 1.14% | 1.74% | 65.62% | 1.04% | 1.52% | 68.11% |
| 95 | 1.06% | 1.61% | 65.62% | 0.96% | 1.40% | 68.11% |
| 96 | 0.99% | 1.50% | 65.62% | 0.88% | 1.29% | 68.11% |
| 97 | 0.92% | 1.39% | 65.62% | 0.81% | 1.18% | 68.11% |
| 98 | 0.85% | 1.30% | 65.62% | 0.74% | 1.08% | 68.11% |
| 99 | 0.79% | 1.20% | 65.62% | 0.67% | 0.99% | 68.11% |
| 100 | 0.73% | 1.12% | 65.62% | 0.62% | 0.91% | 68.11% |
| 101 | 0.68% | 1.04% | 65.62% | 0.56% | 0.83% | 68.11% |
| 102 | 0.63% | 0.97% | 65.62% | 0.51% | 0.75% | 68.11% |
| 103 | 0.59% | 0.90% | 65.62% | 0.47% | 0.69% | 68.11% |
| 104 | 0.55% | 0.83% | 65.62% | 0.42% | 0.62% | 68.11% |
| 105~ | 0.51% | 0.77% | 65.62% | 0.38% | 0.56% | 68.11% |
