がん罹患死亡寄与率Cancer Incidence risi contribution to Mortality Risk Cancer Prevensti
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大腸がん罹患リスク死亡リスク寄与率
Colorectal Cancer Incidence Risk Contribution to Mortality Risk
死亡時にその原因がどの程度胃がんに罹患したことが原因になっているのかを見てみましょう。これは、大腸がんによる死亡率とは、少々違い、死亡というイヴェントが発生した場合のその原因として胃がんの占める平均割合です。これは、あくまでも全てが平均的な日本人がいた場合のその平均余命を厚生労働省の統計データよりとり、その余命にがん情報サービス、がん登録・統計の年代別死亡率と罹患率を用いて計算し、それにベイズの定理を適応し、罹患後の死亡リスクの事後確率を求めたものになります。
これにより、大腸がんに罹患することがどの程度、死亡につながるかのおおよその傾向を得ることができます。罹患率、死亡率などを換算しますので、罹患率が高く、罹患後の死亡割合が高いものが数値が大きくなります。ざっくり言えば、死亡リスクの中で大腸がんによる死亡リスクがどの程度占めているかを表しており、どの程度心配すべきものかの簡単な指標となりえます。
０歳のリスク換算で男性4.8％、女性4.6となっており、死亡リスクの大きな原因と考えることができます。男性一位の肺がんの男性9.7、女性4.5％より、男性は低く抑えられて第三位、女性は、肺がんを抜き大腸がんが第一位となっています。
男女間で大きな差はないですが、男女とも死亡寄与率の上位を占めており、根本的な対策が求められます。
WHO、国際がん研究機構(IARC)、世界癌研究基金(WCRF)、米国がん研究協会(AICR)などがまとめている結果をみますと、大腸がんの確実、可能性大危険因子としているのは、
赤肉、加工肉、飲酒、肥満、内臓脂肪、成人後の高身長です。
ストレスに関しては明確な調査は現状存在しませんが、金銭的は強いストレスが関連している、また精神的より肉体的なストレスの傾向が強いとの報告もあります。
また、実際には個性があり、この値が出発点であり、上の様々な要因による影響を考慮し、この値から個人のリスクを推測していくことになります。
興味深いことに 男性は、死亡リスクは、55歳(2.8％)が最もリスクが高く、罹患リスクは、45歳(8.6％)、女性は死亡リスクは55歳(2.6%)、罹患は、40歳(6.5%)が最もリスクが高くなっています。
一方、死亡時罹患寄与率は、おおよそ年齢とともに低くなっており、実際には高齢になるとがんでの死亡の可能性が低くなるということででょうか。
| 男性大腸がん | 女性大腸がん | |||||
| 年齢 | 死亡 リスク |
罹患 リスク |
死亡時 罹患 寄与率 |
死亡 リスク |
罹患 リスク |
死亡時 罹患 寄与率 |
| 0 | 2.53% | 8.20% | 4.847% | 2.36% | 6.30% | 4.602% |
| 1 | 2.56% | 8.28% | 4.819% | 2.41% | 6.37% | 4.588% |
| 2 | 2.57% | 8.29% | 4.819% | 2.42% | 6.38% | 4.589% |
| 3 | 2.58% | 8.30% | 4.826% | 2.42% | 6.38% | 4.592% |
| 4 | 2.58% | 8.31% | 4.824% | 2.42% | 6.39% | 4.595% |
| 5 | 2.58% | 8.31% | 4.828% | 2.43% | 6.39% | 4.599% |
| 6 | 2.58% | 8.31% | 4.829% | 2.43% | 6.39% | 4.600% |
| 7 | 2.58% | 8.32% | 4.827% | 2.43% | 6.40% | 4.599% |
| 8 | 2.58% | 8.32% | 4.826% | 2.43% | 6.40% | 4.600% |
| 9 | 2.59% | 8.33% | 4.825% | 2.43% | 6.40% | 4.599% |
| 10 | 2.59% | 8.33% | 4.826% | 2.43% | 6.40% | 4.600% |
| 11 | 2.59% | 8.33% | 4.825% | 2.43% | 6.40% | 4.599% |
| 12 | 2.59% | 8.33% | 4.826% | 2.43% | 6.40% | 4.600% |
| 13 | 2.59% | 8.34% | 4.825% | 2.44% | 6.41% | 4.599% |
| 14 | 2.59% | 8.34% | 4.824% | 2.44% | 6.41% | 4.600% |
| 15 | 2.60% | 8.35% | 4.823% | 2.44% | 6.41% | 4.599% |
| 16 | 2.60% | 8.35% | 4.823% | 2.44% | 6.41% | 4.600% |
| 17 | 2.60% | 8.35% | 4.824% | 2.44% | 6.41% | 4.600% |
| 18 | 2.60% | 8.36% | 4.822% | 2.44% | 6.42% | 4.600% |
| 19 | 2.61% | 8.37% | 4.821% | 2.45% | 6.42% | 4.601% |
| 20 | 2.62% | 8.39% | 4.817% | 2.45% | 6.42% | 4.601% |
| 21 | 2.62% | 8.39% | 4.818% | 2.45% | 6.43% | 4.601% |
| 22 | 2.63% | 8.41% | 4.815% | 2.46% | 6.43% | 4.601% |
| 23 | 2.63% | 8.43% | 4.814% | 2.46% | 6.44% | 4.602% |
| 24 | 2.64% | 8.44% | 4.813% | 2.46% | 6.44% | 4.601% |
| 25 | 2.65% | 8.45% | 4.812% | 2.46% | 6.45% | 4.602% |
| 26 | 2.66% | 8.47% | 4.809% | 2.47% | 6.45% | 4.602% |
| 27 | 2.66% | 8.48% | 4.807% | 2.47% | 6.46% | 4.601% |
| 28 | 2.67% | 8.49% | 4.806% | 2.48% | 6.46% | 4.602% |
| 29 | 2.67% | 8.50% | 4.805% | 2.48% | 6.47% | 4.602% |
| 30 | 2.68% | 8.51% | 4.803% | 2.49% | 6.47% | 4.601% |
| 31 | 2.69% | 8.52% | 4.800% | 2.49% | 6.47% | 4.601% |
| 32 | 2.69% | 8.53% | 4.798% | 2.49% | 6.48% | 4.601% |
| 33 | 2.70% | 8.54% | 4.797% | 2.50% | 6.48% | 4.601% |
| 34 | 2.71% | 8.56% | 4.794% | 2.50% | 6.48% | 4.600% |
| 35 | 2.71% | 8.57% | 4.792% | 2.51% | 6.48% | 4.600% |
| 36 | 2.72% | 8.57% | 4.791% | 2.51% | 6.48% | 4.599% |
| 37 | 2.72% | 8.58% | 4.788% | 2.52% | 6.49% | 4.597% |
| 38 | 2.73% | 8.58% | 4.786% | 2.52% | 6.48% | 4.596% |
| 39 | 2.74% | 8.59% | 4.783% | 2.53% | 6.49% | 4.594% |
| 40 | 2.75% | 8.60% | 4.778% | 2.53% | 6.49% | 4.592% |
| 41 | 2.75% | 8.60% | 4.776% | 2.54% | 6.49% | 4.590% |
| 42 | 2.76% | 8.60% | 4.771% | 2.54% | 6.48% | 4.588% |
| 43 | 2.76% | 8.61% | 4.767% | 2.55% | 6.47% | 4.586% |
| 44 | 2.77% | 8.61% | 4.763% | 2.55% | 6.47% | 4.582% |
| 45 | 2.78% | 8.62% | 4.757% | 2.56% | 6.47% | 4.579% |
| 46 | 2.79% | 8.61% | 4.748% | 2.56% | 6.45% | 4.573% |
| 47 | 2.79% | 8.60% | 4.740% | 2.57% | 6.43% | 4.567% |
| 48 | 2.80% | 8.59% | 4.732% | 2.57% | 6.41% | 4.561% |
| 49 | 2.81% | 8.58% | 4.721% | 2.58% | 6.39% | 4.553% |
| 50 | 2.82% | 8.58% | 4.711% | 2.59% | 6.38% | 4.547% |
| 51 | 2.82% | 8.55% | 4.696% | 2.59% | 6.35% | 4.537% |
| 52 | 2.82% | 8.51% | 4.681% | 2.60% | 6.32% | 4.527% |
| 53 | 2.83% | 8.49% | 4.665% | 2.60% | 6.29% | 4.517% |
| 54 | 2.84% | 8.46% | 4.648% | 2.61% | 6.27% | 4.507% |
| 55 | 2.84% | 8.44% | 4.631% | 2.61% | 6.25% | 4.496% |
| 56 | 2.84% | 8.36% | 4.601% | 2.61% | 6.20% | 4.475% |
| 57 | 2.83% | 8.29% | 4.571% | 2.61% | 6.14% | 4.454% |
| 58 | 2.83% | 8.22% | 4.540% | 2.61% | 6.09% | 4.433% |
| 59 | 2.83% | 8.14% | 4.509% | 2.61% | 6.05% | 4.411% |
| 60 | 2.83% | 8.08% | 4.477% | 2.61% | 6.00% | 4.390% |
| 61 | 2.81% | 7.94% | 4.432% | 2.61% | 5.93% | 4.363% |
| 62 | 2.79% | 7.81% | 4.386% | 2.60% | 5.86% | 4.335% |
| 63 | 2.78% | 7.68% | 4.339% | 2.60% | 5.79% | 4.307% |
| 64 | 2.76% | 7.56% | 4.291% | 2.59% | 5.72% | 4.280% |
| 65 | 2.75% | 7.45% | 4.243% | 2.59% | 5.66% | 4.253% |
| 66 | 2.72% | 7.27% | 4.177% | 2.58% | 5.56% | 4.218% |
| 67 | 2.68% | 7.10% | 4.111% | 2.57% | 5.46% | 4.184% |
| 68 | 2.65% | 6.93% | 4.044% | 2.56% | 5.37% | 4.159% |
| 69 | 2.65% | 6.78% | 3.955% | 2.55% | 5.27% | 4.117% |
| 70 | 2.65% | 6.64% | 3.865% | 2.55% | 5.18% | 4.083% |
| 71 | 2.63% | 6.42% | 3.779% | 2.52% | 5.05% | 4.047% |
| 72 | 2.61% | 6.20% | 3.693% | 2.51% | 4.92% | 3.969% |
| 73 | 2.60% | 5.99% | 3.610% | 2.49% | 4.79% | 3.874% |
| 74 | 2.59% | 5.79% | 3.529% | 2.47% | 4.67% | 3.774% |
| 75 | 2.58% | 5.59% | 3.449% | 2.46% | 4.56% | 3.675% |
| 76 | 2.54% | 5.32% | 3.388% | 2.43% | 4.39% | 3.582% |
| 77 | 2.51% | 5.07% | 3.325% | 2.40% | 4.23% | 3.488% |
| 78 | 2.48% | 4.83% | 3.262% | 2.37% | 4.08% | 3.391% |
| 79 | 2.45% | 4.59% | 3.200% | 2.35% | 3.93% | 3.292% |
| 80 | 2.45% | 4.38% | 3.138% | 2.34% | 3.80% | 3.192% |
| 81 | 2.37% | 4.14% | 3.116% | 2.28% | 3.64% | 3.101% |
| 82 | 2.31% | 3.92% | 3.091% | 2.23% | 3.49% | 3.007% |
| 83 | 2.26% | 3.71% | 3.008% | 2.18% | 3.35% | 2.909% |
| 84 | 2.22% | 3.52% | 2.828% | 2.14% | 3.22% | 2.810% |
| 85 | 2.19% | 3.34% | 2.658% | 2.11% | 3.10% | 2.711% |
| 86 | 2.04% | 3.11% | 2.490% | 1.96% | 2.88% | 2.564% |
| 87 | 1.90% | 2.89% | 2.319% | 1.81% | 2.66% | 2.410% |
| 88 | 1.76% | 2.69% | 2.145% | 1.68% | 2.46% | 2.249% |
| 89 | 1.64% | 2.50% | 1.971% | 1.55% | 2.27% | 2.047% |
| 90 | 1.53% | 2.32% | 1.802% | 1.43% | 2.10% | 1.756% |
| 91 | 1.42% | 2.16% | 1.792% | 1.32% | 1.94% | 1.619% |
| 92 | 1.32% | 2.01% | 1.610% | 1.22% | 1.79% | 1.477% |
| 93 | 1.21% | 1.85% | 1.426% | 1.12% | 1.65% | 1.336% |
| 94 | 1.14% | 1.74% | 1.278% | 1.04% | 1.52% | 1.200% |
| 95 | 1.06% | 1.61% | 1.132% | 0.96% | 1.40% | 1.071% |
| 96 | 0.99% | 1.50% | 1.128% | 0.88% | 1.29% | 1.071% |
| 97 | 0.92% | 1.39% | 1.132% | 0.81% | 1.18% | 1.031% |
| 98 | 0.85% | 1.30% | 1.040% | 0.74% | 1.08% | 0.888% |
| 99 | 0.79% | 1.20% | 0.887% | 0.67% | 0.99% | 0.760% |
| 100 | 0.73% | 1.12% | 0.756% | 0.62% | 0.91% | 0.648% |
| 101 | 0.68% | 1.04% | 0.756% | 0.56% | 0.83% | 0.648% |
| 102 | 0.63% | 0.97% | 0.756% | 0.51% | 0.75% | 0.648% |
| 103 | 0.59% | 0.90% | 0.756% | 0.47% | 0.69% | 0.648% |
| 104 | 0.55% | 0.83% | 0.756% | 0.42% | 0.62% | 0.648% |
| 105~ | 0.51% | 0.77% | 0.756% | 0.38% | 0.56% | 0.648% |
