がん罹患死亡寄与率Cancer Incidence risi contribution to Mortality Risk Cancer Prevensti
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肺がん罹患リスク死亡リスク寄与率
Lung Cancer Incidence Risk Contribution to Mortality Risk
死亡時にその原因がどの程度膵臓がんに罹患したことが原因になっているのかを見てみましょう。これは、肺がんによる死亡率とは、少々違い、死亡というイヴェントが発生した場合のその原因として膵臓がんの占める平均割合です。
あくまでも全てが平均的な日本人がいた場合のその平均余命を厚生労働省の統計データよりとり、その余命にがん情報サービス、がん登録・統計の年代別死亡率と罹患率を用いて計算し、それにベイズの定理を適応し、罹患後の死亡リスクの事後確率を求めたものになります。
これにより、肺がんに罹患することがどの程度、死亡につながるかのおおよその傾向を得ることができます。罹患率、死亡率などを換算しますので、罹患率が高く、罹患後の死亡割合が高いものが数値が大きくなります。ざっくり言えば、死亡リスクの中で肺がんによる死亡リスクがどの程度占めているかを表しており、どの程度心配すべきものかの簡単な指標となりえます。
WHO、国際がん研究機構(IARC)、世界癌研究基金(WCRF)、米国がん研究協会(AICR)などがまとめている結果をみますと、肺がんの確実、可能性大危険因子としているのは、
喫煙、受動喫煙、飲料水中のヒ素、ベータカロチンの大量摂取、アスベストです。
ストレスに関しては明確な調査は現状存在しませんが、病気に対する、特にがんに対する強烈な恐怖心からくるストレスが関連しているとの報告もあります。
肺がんは罹患リスクが高く、罹患すると治りにく、罹患による死亡への寄与率は男性ではおおよそ10％程度の高いい値となっております。胃がんが６％程度であったことを考えると最も注意すべきがんの一つかと考えられます。
一方女性は４％台で、胃がんや大腸がんと大きく違いません。これを考えるとやはり喫煙が大きな要因と推定されます。
興味深いことに 男性は、60歳が最も罹患リスクが高く、65歳の死亡リスクが最も高くなっています。女性は40歳の罹患リスクが持っても高く、55歳が最も死亡リスクが高くなっています。
一方、死亡時罹患寄与率は、おおよそ年齢とともに低くなっており、実際には高齢になるとがんでの死亡の可能性が低くなるということででょうか。ただ、男性の場合は55歳が最も高くなっており、これの原因はどこにあるのでしょうか。
| 男性肺がん | 女性肺がん | |||||
| 年齢 | 死亡 リスク |
罹患 リスク |
死亡時 罹患 寄与率 |
死亡 リスク |
罹患 リスク |
死亡時 罹患 寄与率 |
| 0 | 5.06% | 8.09% | 9.715% | 2.31% | 4.40% | 4.503% |
| 1 | 5.16% | 8.21% | 9.700% | 2.35% | 4.44% | 4.473% |
| 2 | 5.18% | 8.24% | 9.707% | 2.35% | 4.45% | 4.472% |
| 3 | 5.19% | 8.24% | 9.720% | 2.36% | 4.45% | 4.473% |
| 4 | 5.20% | 8.26% | 9.724% | 2.36% | 4.45% | 4.475% |
| 5 | 5.20% | 8.26% | 9.734% | 2.36% | 4.45% | 4.478% |
| 6 | 5.20% | 8.26% | 9.735% | 2.36% | 4.45% | 4.478% |
| 7 | 5.21% | 8.27% | 9.736% | 2.36% | 4.46% | 4.477% |
| 8 | 5.21% | 8.28% | 9.736% | 2.36% | 4.46% | 4.477% |
| 9 | 5.22% | 8.29% | 9.736% | 2.37% | 4.46% | 4.476% |
| 10 | 5.22% | 8.29% | 9.738% | 2.37% | 4.46% | 4.477% |
| 11 | 5.23% | 8.29% | 9.738% | 2.37% | 4.46% | 4.475% |
| 12 | 5.23% | 8.29% | 9.740% | 2.37% | 4.46% | 4.476% |
| 13 | 5.23% | 8.30% | 9.740% | 2.37% | 4.46% | 4.474% |
| 14 | 5.24% | 8.31% | 9.740% | 2.37% | 4.46% | 4.475% |
| 15 | 5.24% | 8.31% | 9.740% | 2.37% | 4.47% | 4.474% |
| 16 | 5.25% | 8.32% | 9.744% | 2.37% | 4.47% | 4.475% |
| 17 | 5.25% | 8.33% | 9.748% | 2.37% | 4.47% | 4.474% |
| 18 | 5.27% | 8.34% | 9.750% | 2.38% | 4.47% | 4.473% |
| 19 | 5.28% | 8.36% | 9.752% | 2.38% | 4.47% | 4.472% |
| 20 | 5.29% | 8.38% | 9.752% | 2.38% | 4.47% | 4.471% |
| 21 | 5.31% | 8.39% | 9.759% | 2.38% | 4.48% | 4.471% |
| 22 | 5.33% | 8.42% | 9.763% | 2.38% | 4.48% | 4.469% |
| 23 | 5.35% | 8.44% | 9.768% | 2.39% | 4.48% | 4.469% |
| 24 | 5.36% | 8.46% | 9.773% | 2.39% | 4.49% | 4.467% |
| 25 | 5.38% | 8.48% | 9.778% | 2.39% | 4.49% | 4.467% |
| 26 | 5.40% | 8.51% | 9.782% | 2.40% | 4.49% | 4.465% |
| 27 | 5.42% | 8.53% | 9.788% | 2.40% | 4.49% | 4.463% |
| 28 | 5.44% | 8.55% | 9.793% | 2.40% | 4.50% | 4.463% |
| 29 | 5.45% | 8.57% | 9.798% | 2.41% | 4.50% | 4.462% |
| 30 | 5.47% | 8.59% | 9.804% | 2.41% | 4.50% | 4.460% |
| 31 | 5.49% | 8.62% | 9.808% | 2.41% | 4.50% | 4.459% |
| 32 | 5.51% | 8.64% | 9.814% | 2.42% | 4.51% | 4.457% |
| 33 | 5.53% | 8.66% | 9.820% | 2.42% | 4.51% | 4.456% |
| 34 | 5.55% | 8.69% | 9.824% | 2.42% | 4.51% | 4.454% |
| 35 | 5.57% | 8.71% | 9.830% | 2.43% | 4.51% | 4.453% |
| 36 | 5.58% | 8.73% | 9.838% | 2.43% | 4.51% | 4.451% |
| 37 | 5.60% | 8.75% | 9.846% | 2.44% | 4.52% | 4.448% |
| 38 | 5.62% | 8.77% | 9.854% | 2.44% | 4.52% | 4.446% |
| 39 | 5.64% | 8.79% | 9.861% | 2.44% | 4.52% | 4.443% |
| 40 | 5.67% | 8.83% | 9.867% | 2.45% | 4.52% | 4.440% |
| 41 | 5.69% | 8.85% | 9.876% | 2.45% | 4.52% | 4.436% |
| 42 | 5.71% | 8.87% | 9.883% | 2.46% | 4.52% | 4.433% |
| 43 | 5.74% | 8.90% | 9.890% | 2.46% | 4.52% | 4.429% |
| 44 | 5.76% | 8.93% | 9.897% | 2.46% | 4.52% | 4.424% |
| 45 | 5.79% | 8.96% | 9.902% | 2.47% | 4.52% | 4.419% |
| 46 | 5.82% | 8.99% | 9.911% | 2.47% | 4.51% | 4.413% |
| 47 | 5.85% | 9.02% | 9.922% | 2.48% | 4.51% | 4.406% |
| 48 | 5.88% | 9.05% | 9.931% | 2.48% | 4.50% | 4.400% |
| 49 | 5.91% | 9.09% | 9.938% | 2.49% | 4.50% | 4.391% |
| 50 | 5.95% | 9.13% | 9.945% | 2.49% | 4.50% | 4.384% |
| 51 | 5.98% | 9.15% | 9.952% | 2.50% | 4.48% | 4.373% |
| 52 | 6.01% | 9.16% | 9.958% | 2.50% | 4.47% | 4.362% |
| 53 | 6.04% | 9.19% | 9.963% | 2.50% | 4.46% | 4.351% |
| 54 | 6.08% | 9.22% | 9.966% | 2.51% | 4.44% | 4.339% |
| 55 | 6.12% | 9.25% | 9.970% | 2.52% | 4.43% | 4.327% |
| 56 | 6.15% | 9.25% | 9.963% | 2.51% | 4.40% | 4.305% |
| 57 | 6.17% | 9.26% | 9.956% | 2.51% | 4.37% | 4.285% |
| 58 | 6.21% | 9.27% | 9.947% | 2.51% | 4.33% | 4.264% |
| 59 | 6.24% | 9.28% | 9.938% | 2.51% | 4.31% | 4.242% |
| 60 | 6.28% | 9.30% | 9.927% | 2.51% | 4.27% | 4.221% |
| 61 | 6.28% | 9.24% | 9.899% | 2.50% | 4.21% | 4.189% |
| 62 | 6.28% | 9.19% | 9.869% | 2.49% | 4.14% | 4.156% |
| 63 | 6.29% | 9.15% | 9.838% | 2.49% | 4.08% | 4.123% |
| 64 | 6.32% | 9.12% | 9.805% | 2.48% | 4.02% | 4.090% |
| 65 | 6.34% | 9.09% | 9.772% | 2.47% | 3.96% | 4.057% |
| 66 | 6.30% | 8.96% | 9.688% | 2.45% | 3.88% | 4.008% |
| 67 | 6.26% | 8.84% | 9.603% | 2.43% | 3.80% | 3.960% |
| 68 | 6.23% | 8.72% | 9.518% | 2.42% | 3.73% | 3.918% |
| 69 | 6.24% | 8.62% | 9.324% | 2.39% | 3.66% | 3.863% |
| 70 | 6.25% | 8.53% | 9.125% | 2.38% | 3.58% | 3.814% |
| 71 | 6.22% | 8.37% | 8.939% | 2.34% | 3.47% | 3.759% |
| 72 | 6.19% | 8.22% | 8.755% | 2.31% | 3.36% | 3.665% |
| 73 | 6.17% | 8.07% | 8.572% | 2.28% | 3.25% | 3.555% |
| 74 | 6.15% | 7.94% | 8.392% | 2.25% | 3.15% | 3.441% |
| 75 | 6.14% | 7.81% | 8.216% | 2.23% | 3.04% | 3.328% |
| 76 | 6.01% | 7.53% | 8.020% | 2.18% | 2.91% | 3.211% |
| 77 | 5.89% | 7.26% | 7.819% | 2.13% | 2.78% | 3.094% |
| 78 | 5.79% | 7.01% | 7.617% | 2.08% | 2.66% | 2.975% |
| 79 | 5.69% | 6.76% | 7.416% | 2.04% | 2.54% | 2.854% |
| 80 | 5.62% | 6.55% | 7.212% | 2.00% | 2.43% | 2.734% |
| 81 | 5.35% | 6.16% | 7.029% | 1.92% | 2.30% | 2.615% |
| 82 | 5.12% | 5.80% | 6.833% | 1.85% | 2.19% | 2.493% |
| 83 | 4.89% | 5.46% | 6.505% | 1.78% | 2.08% | 2.368% |
| 84 | 4.69% | 5.14% | 5.971% | 1.71% | 1.97% | 2.244% |
| 85 | 4.51% | 4.84% | 5.472% | 1.65% | 1.87% | 2.121% |
| 86 | 4.20% | 4.51% | 5.126% | 1.53% | 1.74% | 2.007% |
| 87 | 3.91% | 4.20% | 4.774% | 1.42% | 1.61% | 1.886% |
| 88 | 3.63% | 3.90% | 4.416% | 1.31% | 1.49% | 1.760% |
| 89 | 3.38% | 3.63% | 4.059% | 1.21% | 1.37% | 1.602% |
| 90 | 3.14% | 3.37% | 3.710% | 1.12% | 1.27% | 1.374% |
| 91 | 2.92% | 3.13% | 3.689% | 1.03% | 1.17% | 1.267% |
| 92 | 2.71% | 2.92% | 3.314% | 0.95% | 1.08% | 1.156% |
| 93 | 2.50% | 2.68% | 2.936% | 0.88% | 1.00% | 1.046% |
| 94 | 2.35% | 2.52% | 2.632% | 0.81% | 0.92% | 0.939% |
| 95 | 2.18% | 2.34% | 2.330% | 0.75% | 0.85% | 0.838% |
| 96 | 2.03% | 2.18% | 2.322% | 0.69% | 0.78% | 0.838% |
| 97 | 1.88% | 2.02% | 2.330% | 0.63% | 0.71% | 0.807% |
| 98 | 1.75% | 1.88% | 2.142% | 0.58% | 0.65% | 0.695% |
| 99 | 1.62% | 1.75% | 1.825% | 0.53% | 0.60% | 0.595% |
| 100 | 1.51% | 1.62% | 1.556% | 0.48% | 0.55% | 0.507% |
| 101 | 1.41% | 1.51% | 1.556% | 0.44% | 0.50% | 0.507% |
| 102 | 1.31% | 1.40% | 1.556% | 0.40% | 0.45% | 0.507% |
| 103 | 1.21% | 1.30% | 1.556% | 0.37% | 0.41% | 0.507% |
| 104 | 1.13% | 1.21% | 1.556% | 0.33% | 0.38% | 0.507% |
| 105 | 1.05% | 1.12% | 1.556% | 0.30% | 0.34% | 0.507% |
