がん罹患死亡寄与率Cancer Incidence risi contribution to Mortality Risk Cancer Prevensti
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膵臓がん罹患リスク死亡リスク寄与率
Pancreatic Cancer Incidence Risk Contribution to Mortality Risk
死亡時にその原因がどの程度膵臓がんに罹患したことが原因になっているのかを見てみましょう。これは、膵臓がんによる死亡率とは、少々違い、死亡というイヴェントが発生した場合のその原因として膵臓がんの占める平均割合です。
あくまでも全てが平均的な日本人がいた場合のその平均余命を厚生労働省の統計データよりとり、その余命にがん情報サービス、がん登録・統計の年代別死亡率と罹患率を用いて計算し、それにベイズの定理を適応し、罹患後の死亡リスクの事後確率を求めたものになります。
これにより、膵臓がんに罹患することがどの程度、死亡につながるかのおおよその傾向を得ることができます。罹患率、死亡率などを換算しますので、罹患率が高く、罹患後の死亡割合が高いものが数値が大きくなります。ざっくり言えば、死亡リスクの中で胃がんによる死亡リスクがどの程度占めているかを表しており、どの程度心配すべきものかの簡単な指標となりえます。
膵臓がんは罹患するとたいへん治りにくくたいへん恐ろしい病気ではありますが、一方たいへんまれな病気でもあり、膵臓がん罹患による死亡への寄与率は３％程度の低い値となっております。恐ろしい病気ではありますが極度に恐れる必要がないと表しているのではないかと考えられます。
実際には個性があり、様々な要因によりそのリスクは変化するため、この値が出発点であり、この値から個人のリスクを推測していくことになります。
WHO、国際がん研究機構(IARC)、世界癌研究基金(WCRF)、米国がん研究協会(AICR)などがまとめている結果をみますと、膵臓がんの確実、可能性大危険因子としているのは、
肥満、喫煙、成人後の高身長、成人後の過体重、内臓脂肪です。
ストレスに関しては明確な調査は現状存在しません。
膵臓がんは珍しいがんでその罹患率はたいへん他と比べ大変低くなっています。しかし、その一方治りにくいがんとしても知られております。
男性は、罹患リスクは、55歳(2.08％)が、死亡リスクは55歳(1.79%)が、最もリスクが高く、女性は55歳(2.02%)が、死亡リスクは55歳(1.82%)が、最もリスクが高くなっています。これを見ても、罹患するとほとんど回復しないことが読み取れます。
一方、死亡時罹患寄与率は、おおよそ年齢とともに低くなっており、実際には高齢になるとがんでの死亡の可能性が低くなるということででょうか。
罹患リスク、死亡リスクは男女差はあまりありません。
| 男性 | 女性 | |||||
| 年齢 | 死亡 リスク |
罹患 リスク |
死亡時 罹患 寄与率 |
死亡 リスク |
罹患 リスク |
死亡時 罹患 寄与率 |
| 0 | 1.61% | 1.91% | 3.087% | 1.68% | 1.91% | 3.276% |
| 1 | 1.63% | 1.93% | 3.064% | 1.71% | 1.93% | 3.250% |
| 2 | 1.63% | 1.94% | 3.063% | 1.71% | 1.93% | 3.248% |
| 3 | 1.64% | 1.94% | 3.069% | 1.71% | 1.94% | 3.248% |
| 4 | 1.64% | 1.94% | 3.065% | 1.71% | 1.94% | 3.249% |
| 5 | 1.64% | 1.94% | 3.067% | 1.71% | 1.94% | 3.251% |
| 6 | 1.64% | 1.94% | 3.068% | 1.71% | 1.94% | 3.251% |
| 7 | 1.64% | 1.94% | 3.067% | 1.72% | 1.94% | 3.250% |
| 8 | 1.64% | 1.94% | 3.066% | 1.72% | 1.94% | 3.250% |
| 9 | 1.64% | 1.95% | 3.065% | 1.72% | 1.94% | 3.249% |
| 10 | 1.64% | 1.95% | 3.066% | 1.72% | 1.94% | 3.250% |
| 11 | 1.64% | 1.95% | 3.065% | 1.72% | 1.94% | 3.248% |
| 12 | 1.64% | 1.95% | 3.065% | 1.72% | 1.94% | 3.249% |
| 13 | 1.65% | 1.95% | 3.064% | 1.72% | 1.94% | 3.247% |
| 14 | 1.65% | 1.95% | 3.063% | 1.72% | 1.94% | 3.248% |
| 15 | 1.65% | 1.95% | 3.062% | 1.72% | 1.94% | 3.246% |
| 16 | 1.65% | 1.95% | 3.062% | 1.72% | 1.94% | 3.247% |
| 17 | 1.65% | 1.95% | 3.063% | 1.72% | 1.95% | 3.246% |
| 18 | 1.65% | 1.96% | 3.061% | 1.72% | 1.95% | 3.245% |
| 19 | 1.66% | 1.96% | 3.060% | 1.72% | 1.95% | 3.244% |
| 20 | 1.66% | 1.96% | 3.057% | 1.73% | 1.95% | 3.244% |
| 21 | 1.66% | 1.97% | 3.057% | 1.73% | 1.95% | 3.243% |
| 22 | 1.67% | 1.97% | 3.054% | 1.73% | 1.95% | 3.241% |
| 23 | 1.67% | 1.98% | 3.053% | 1.73% | 1.96% | 3.241% |
| 24 | 1.67% | 1.98% | 3.051% | 1.73% | 1.96% | 3.239% |
| 25 | 1.68% | 1.98% | 3.050% | 1.73% | 1.96% | 3.239% |
| 26 | 1.68% | 1.99% | 3.047% | 1.74% | 1.96% | 3.237% |
| 27 | 1.69% | 1.99% | 3.046% | 1.74% | 1.96% | 3.235% |
| 28 | 1.69% | 2.00% | 3.045% | 1.74% | 1.97% | 3.235% |
| 29 | 1.69% | 2.00% | 3.043% | 1.74% | 1.97% | 3.233% |
| 30 | 1.70% | 2.00% | 3.042% | 1.75% | 1.97% | 3.231% |
| 31 | 1.70% | 2.01% | 3.040% | 1.75% | 1.97% | 3.230% |
| 32 | 1.71% | 2.01% | 3.038% | 1.75% | 1.98% | 3.228% |
| 33 | 1.71% | 2.02% | 3.037% | 1.75% | 1.98% | 3.227% |
| 34 | 1.71% | 2.02% | 3.035% | 1.76% | 1.98% | 3.225% |
| 35 | 1.72% | 2.03% | 3.034% | 1.76% | 1.98% | 3.224% |
| 36 | 1.72% | 2.03% | 3.033% | 1.76% | 1.99% | 3.223% |
| 37 | 1.73% | 2.03% | 3.031% | 1.76% | 1.99% | 3.221% |
| 38 | 1.73% | 2.04% | 3.031% | 1.77% | 1.99% | 3.220% |
| 39 | 1.73% | 2.04% | 3.029% | 1.77% | 1.99% | 3.218% |
| 40 | 1.74% | 2.05% | 3.026% | 1.77% | 2.00% | 3.216% |
| 41 | 1.74% | 2.05% | 3.024% | 1.78% | 2.00% | 3.213% |
| 42 | 1.75% | 2.05% | 3.021% | 1.78% | 2.00% | 3.211% |
| 43 | 1.75% | 2.06% | 3.017% | 1.78% | 2.00% | 3.208% |
| 44 | 1.75% | 2.06% | 3.014% | 1.78% | 2.00% | 3.204% |
| 45 | 1.76% | 2.06% | 3.010% | 1.79% | 2.01% | 3.200% |
| 46 | 1.76% | 2.07% | 3.003% | 1.79% | 2.01% | 3.197% |
| 47 | 1.77% | 2.07% | 2.998% | 1.80% | 2.01% | 3.191% |
| 48 | 1.77% | 2.07% | 2.991% | 1.80% | 2.01% | 3.187% |
| 49 | 1.77% | 2.07% | 2.983% | 1.80% | 2.02% | 3.181% |
| 50 | 1.78% | 2.08% | 2.975% | 1.81% | 2.02% | 3.175% |
| 51 | 1.78% | 2.08% | 2.964% | 1.81% | 2.02% | 3.166% |
| 52 | 1.78% | 2.07% | 2.952% | 1.81% | 2.02% | 3.156% |
| 53 | 1.78% | 2.07% | 2.939% | 1.81% | 2.02% | 3.147% |
| 54 | 1.79% | 2.08% | 2.925% | 1.81% | 2.02% | 3.136% |
| 55 | 1.79% | 2.08% | 2.912% | 1.82% | 2.02% | 3.125% |
| 56 | 1.78% | 2.07% | 2.890% | 1.81% | 2.01% | 3.106% |
| 57 | 1.78% | 2.05% | 2.867% | 1.81% | 2.01% | 3.089% |
| 58 | 1.77% | 2.04% | 2.844% | 1.81% | 2.00% | 3.070% |
| 59 | 1.77% | 2.04% | 2.820% | 1.81% | 2.00% | 3.051% |
| 60 | 1.77% | 2.03% | 2.796% | 1.80% | 1.99% | 3.033% |
| 61 | 1.75% | 2.00% | 2.762% | 1.79% | 1.98% | 3.005% |
| 62 | 1.74% | 1.98% | 2.725% | 1.79% | 1.97% | 2.977% |
| 63 | 1.72% | 1.96% | 2.689% | 1.78% | 1.95% | 2.948% |
| 64 | 1.71% | 1.94% | 2.652% | 1.77% | 1.94% | 2.920% |
| 65 | 1.70% | 1.93% | 2.614% | 1.76% | 1.93% | 2.891% |
| 66 | 1.67% | 1.89% | 2.563% | 1.74% | 1.90% | 2.850% |
| 67 | 1.64% | 1.86% | 2.511% | 1.72% | 1.88% | 2.809% |
| 68 | 1.61% | 1.82% | 2.460% | 1.71% | 1.85% | 2.772% |
| 69 | 1.59% | 1.79% | 2.377% | 1.69% | 1.83% | 2.727% |
| 70 | 1.57% | 1.77% | 2.294% | 1.67% | 1.80% | 2.685% |
| 71 | 1.54% | 1.72% | 2.212% | 1.65% | 1.77% | 2.640% |
| 72 | 1.51% | 1.67% | 2.132% | 1.62% | 1.73% | 2.568% |
| 73 | 1.48% | 1.62% | 2.052% | 1.60% | 1.70% | 2.485% |
| 74 | 1.45% | 1.58% | 1.975% | 1.57% | 1.67% | 2.399% |
| 75 | 1.42% | 1.54% | 1.899% | 1.55% | 1.64% | 2.314% |
| 76 | 1.37% | 1.47% | 1.831% | 1.50% | 1.59% | 2.219% |
| 77 | 1.33% | 1.41% | 1.762% | 1.46% | 1.53% | 2.124% |
| 78 | 1.29% | 1.35% | 1.693% | 1.42% | 1.48% | 2.027% |
| 79 | 1.25% | 1.30% | 1.624% | 1.38% | 1.44% | 1.930% |
| 80 | 1.21% | 1.25% | 1.555% | 1.34% | 1.39% | 1.834% |
| 81 | 1.15% | 1.18% | 1.513% | 1.28% | 1.33% | 1.747% |
| 82 | 1.10% | 1.12% | 1.468% | 1.23% | 1.27% | 1.657% |
| 83 | 1.05% | 1.06% | 1.395% | 1.17% | 1.22% | 1.566% |
| 84 | 1.00% | 1.01% | 1.278% | 1.12% | 1.17% | 1.475% |
| 85 | 0.96% | 0.96% | 1.168% | 1.08% | 1.12% | 1.385% |
| 86 | 0.90% | 0.89% | 1.094% | 1.00% | 1.04% | 1.310% |
| 87 | 0.83% | 0.83% | 1.019% | 0.93% | 0.97% | 1.231% |
| 88 | 0.78% | 0.77% | 0.943% | 0.86% | 0.89% | 1.149% |
| 89 | 0.72% | 0.72% | 0.866% | 0.79% | 0.82% | 1.046% |
| 90 | 0.67% | 0.67% | 0.792% | 0.73% | 0.76% | 0.897% |
| 91 | 0.62% | 0.62% | 0.787% | 0.67% | 0.70% | 0.827% |
| 92 | 0.58% | 0.58% | 0.707% | 0.62% | 0.65% | 0.755% |
| 93 | 0.53% | 0.53% | 0.627% | 0.57% | 0.60% | 0.683% |
| 94 | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.562% | 0.53% | 0.55% | 0.613% |
| 95 | 0.47% | 0.46% | 0.497% | 0.49% | 0.51% | 0.547% |
| 96 | 0.43% | 0.43% | 0.496% | 0.45% | 0.47% | 0.547% |
| 97 | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.497% | 0.41% | 0.43% | 0.527% |
| 98 | 0.37% | 0.37% | 0.457% | 0.38% | 0.39% | 0.454% |
| 99 | 0.35% | 0.35% | 0.390% | 0.34% | 0.36% | 0.388% |
| 100 | 0.32% | 0.32% | 0.332% | 0.32% | 0.33% | 0.331% |
| 101 | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.332% | 0.29% | 0.30% | 0.331% |
| 102 | 0.28% | 0.28% | 0.332% | 0.26% | 0.27% | 0.331% |
| 103 | 0.26% | 0.26% | 0.332% | 0.24% | 0.25% | 0.331% |
| 104 | 0.24% | 0.24% | 0.332% | 0.22% | 0.23% | 0.331% |
| 105 | 0.22% | 0.22% | 0.332% | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.331% |
