がん罹患死亡寄与率Cancer Incidence risi contribution to Mortality Risk Cancer Prevensti
ようこそ、米順医療統計情報クリニックホームページへ。 あなたは 番目の訪問者です!
肝臓がん罹患リスク死亡リスク寄与率
Liver Cancer Incidence Risk Contribution to Mortality Risk
死亡時にその原因がどの程度肝臓がんに罹患したことが原因になっているのかを見てみましょう。これは、肝臓がんによる死亡率とは、少々違い、死亡というイヴェントが発生した場合のその原因として肝臓がんの占める平均割合です。
これは、あくまでも全てが平均的な日本人がいた場合のその平均余命を厚生労働省の統計データよりとり、その余命にがん情報サービス、がん登録・統計の年代別死亡率と罹患率を用いて計算し、それにベイズの定理を適応し、罹患後の死亡リスクの事後確率を求めたものになります。
これにより、肝臓がんに罹患することがどの程度、死亡につながるかのおおよその傾向を得ることができます。罹患率、死亡率などを換算しますので、罹患率が高く、罹患後の死亡割合が高いものが数値が大きくなります。ざっくり言えば、死亡リスクの中で肺がんによる死亡リスクがどの程度占めているかを表しており、どの程度心配すべきものかの簡単な指標となりえます。
肝臓がんは罹患リスクが胃がん、大腸がんや肺がんほど高いわけではありませんが、罹患すると治りにく、膵臓がんの次に罹患後の死亡リスクは、高くなっています。それ故に、罹患による死亡への寄与率は男性ではおおよそ4.5％程度、女性では、2.6％程度の高い値となっております。これは、男性では、大腸がんと同程度、女性では、乳がんと同程度となっています。
男性は、女性に比べだいぶ高くなっています。原因がC型肝炎がおもで、続いてB型肝炎と言われていますが、それらの感染率に男女間の差は見られません。それなのに肝臓がんの罹患が男性に多いのは、その他の大きな要因がカウントされていないことになります。
肝臓がんの場合は特に、B/C型肝炎、飲酒、アフラトキシン(カビの一種)、ストレス等様々な要因によるといわれていますが、男女で大きく異なる可能性が大きいのは、ストレスでしょうか。
興味深いことに 男性女性とも、55歳が最も罹患リスクが高く、60歳の死亡リスクが最も高くなっています。
一方、死亡時罹患寄与率は、おおよそ年齢とともに低くなっており、実際には高齢になるとがんでの死亡の可能性が低くなるということででょうか。
| 男性肝臓がん | 女性肝臓がん | |||||
| 年 齢 |
死亡 平均 余命 リスク |
罹患 平均 余命 リスク |
死亡時 罹患 寄与率 |
死亡 平均 余命 リスク |
罹患 平均 余命 リスク |
死亡時 罹患 寄与率 |
| 0 | 2.31% | 3.35% | 4.432% | 1.36% | 1.83% | 2.650% |
| 1 | 2.34% | 3.39% | 4.406% | 1.38% | 1.85% | 2.626% |
| 2 | 2.35% | 3.39% | 4.406% | 1.38% | 1.85% | 2.624% |
| 3 | 2.35% | 3.39% | 4.412% | 1.38% | 1.86% | 2.624% |
| 4 | 2.36% | 3.40% | 4.410% | 1.38% | 1.86% | 2.624% |
| 5 | 2.36% | 3.40% | 4.413% | 1.38% | 1.86% | 2.625% |
| 6 | 2.36% | 3.40% | 4.414% | 1.38% | 1.86% | 2.625% |
| 7 | 2.36% | 3.40% | 4.413% | 1.39% | 1.86% | 2.624% |
| 8 | 2.36% | 3.40% | 4.412% | 1.39% | 1.86% | 2.625% |
| 9 | 2.36% | 3.41% | 4.411% | 1.39% | 1.86% | 2.624% |
| 10 | 2.36% | 3.41% | 4.412% | 1.39% | 1.86% | 2.624% |
| 11 | 2.37% | 3.41% | 4.411% | 1.39% | 1.86% | 2.623% |
| 12 | 2.37% | 3.41% | 4.411% | 1.39% | 1.86% | 2.623% |
| 13 | 2.37% | 3.41% | 4.410% | 1.39% | 1.86% | 2.622% |
| 14 | 2.37% | 3.41% | 4.409% | 1.39% | 1.86% | 2.622% |
| 15 | 2.37% | 3.41% | 4.408% | 1.39% | 1.86% | 2.621% |
| 16 | 2.37% | 3.42% | 4.409% | 1.39% | 1.86% | 2.622% |
| 17 | 2.38% | 3.42% | 4.409% | 1.39% | 1.86% | 2.621% |
| 18 | 2.38% | 3.42% | 4.408% | 1.39% | 1.86% | 2.620% |
| 19 | 2.38% | 3.43% | 4.407% | 1.39% | 1.86% | 2.619% |
| 20 | 2.39% | 3.44% | 4.404% | 1.39% | 1.86% | 2.619% |
| 21 | 2.39% | 3.44% | 4.405% | 1.39% | 1.86% | 2.618% |
| 22 | 2.40% | 3.45% | 4.402% | 1.40% | 1.87% | 2.616% |
| 23 | 2.41% | 3.46% | 4.401% | 1.40% | 1.87% | 2.616% |
| 24 | 2.41% | 3.46% | 4.401% | 1.40% | 1.87% | 2.614% |
| 25 | 2.42% | 3.47% | 4.400% | 1.40% | 1.87% | 2.613% |
| 26 | 2.43% | 3.48% | 4.397% | 1.40% | 1.87% | 2.612% |
| 27 | 2.43% | 3.49% | 4.397% | 1.40% | 1.87% | 2.610% |
| 28 | 2.44% | 3.49% | 4.396% | 1.40% | 1.87% | 2.610% |
| 29 | 2.45% | 3.50% | 4.396% | 1.41% | 1.88% | 2.608% |
| 30 | 2.45% | 3.51% | 4.395% | 1.41% | 1.88% | 2.607% |
| 31 | 2.46% | 3.52% | 4.393% | 1.41% | 1.88% | 2.605% |
| 32 | 2.47% | 3.52% | 4.392% | 1.41% | 1.88% | 2.604% |
| 33 | 2.47% | 3.53% | 4.391% | 1.41% | 1.88% | 2.603% |
| 34 | 2.48% | 3.54% | 4.389% | 1.42% | 1.89% | 2.601% |
| 35 | 2.48% | 3.55% | 4.388% | 1.42% | 1.89% | 2.600% |
| 36 | 2.49% | 3.55% | 4.389% | 1.42% | 1.89% | 2.599% |
| 37 | 2.50% | 3.56% | 4.387% | 1.42% | 1.89% | 2.597% |
| 38 | 2.50% | 3.56% | 4.388% | 1.42% | 1.89% | 2.596% |
| 39 | 2.51% | 3.57% | 4.386% | 1.43% | 1.89% | 2.594% |
| 40 | 2.52% | 3.58% | 4.384% | 1.43% | 1.90% | 2.592% |
| 41 | 2.52% | 3.58% | 4.384% | 1.43% | 1.90% | 2.590% |
| 42 | 2.53% | 3.59% | 4.383% | 1.43% | 1.90% | 2.589% |
| 43 | 2.54% | 3.60% | 4.382% | 1.44% | 1.90% | 2.587% |
| 44 | 2.55% | 3.60% | 4.382% | 1.44% | 1.91% | 2.584% |
| 45 | 2.56% | 3.61% | 4.379% | 1.44% | 1.91% | 2.582% |
| 46 | 2.57% | 3.62% | 4.375% | 1.45% | 1.91% | 2.580% |
| 47 | 2.58% | 3.62% | 4.372% | 1.45% | 1.92% | 2.577% |
| 48 | 2.58% | 3.63% | 4.367% | 1.45% | 1.92% | 2.576% |
| 49 | 2.59% | 3.63% | 4.361% | 1.46% | 1.92% | 2.572% |
| 50 | 2.61% | 3.64% | 4.355% | 1.46% | 1.93% | 2.569% |
| 51 | 2.61% | 3.64% | 4.345% | 1.47% | 1.93% | 2.565% |
| 52 | 2.62% | 3.64% | 4.335% | 1.47% | 1.93% | 2.561% |
| 53 | 2.62% | 3.64% | 4.324% | 1.47% | 1.93% | 2.557% |
| 54 | 2.63% | 3.64% | 4.311% | 1.48% | 1.93% | 2.552% |
| 55 | 2.64% | 3.64% | 4.299% | 1.48% | 1.93% | 2.547% |
| 56 | 2.64% | 3.63% | 4.278% | 1.48% | 1.93% | 2.542% |
| 57 | 2.64% | 3.62% | 4.256% | 1.49% | 1.93% | 2.538% |
| 58 | 2.64% | 3.61% | 4.233% | 1.49% | 1.93% | 2.532% |
| 59 | 2.64% | 3.60% | 4.210% | 1.50% | 1.93% | 2.526% |
| 60 | 2.65% | 3.59% | 4.186% | 1.50% | 1.92% | 2.520% |
| 61 | 2.63% | 3.55% | 4.151% | 1.50% | 1.91% | 2.509% |
| 62 | 2.62% | 3.52% | 4.115% | 1.50% | 1.90% | 2.497% |
| 63 | 2.61% | 3.49% | 4.079% | 1.50% | 1.90% | 2.484% |
| 64 | 2.60% | 3.46% | 4.041% | 1.50% | 1.89% | 2.472% |
| 65 | 2.60% | 3.43% | 4.002% | 1.50% | 1.88% | 2.459% |
| 66 | 2.57% | 3.37% | 3.955% | 1.49% | 1.85% | 2.434% |
| 67 | 2.55% | 3.31% | 3.907% | 1.48% | 1.83% | 2.410% |
| 68 | 2.53% | 3.25% | 3.859% | 1.47% | 1.80% | 2.389% |
| 69 | 2.51% | 3.18% | 3.746% | 1.46% | 1.78% | 2.360% |
| 70 | 2.49% | 3.11% | 3.630% | 1.46% | 1.75% | 2.335% |
| 71 | 2.44% | 3.02% | 3.503% | 1.43% | 1.71% | 2.295% |
| 72 | 2.39% | 2.92% | 3.377% | 1.41% | 1.66% | 2.232% |
| 73 | 2.34% | 2.83% | 3.253% | 1.39% | 1.62% | 2.160% |
| 74 | 2.30% | 2.74% | 3.131% | 1.37% | 1.57% | 2.084% |
| 75 | 2.25% | 2.65% | 3.012% | 1.35% | 1.53% | 2.009% |
| 76 | 2.15% | 2.50% | 2.868% | 1.30% | 1.46% | 1.911% |
| 77 | 2.05% | 2.36% | 2.723% | 1.25% | 1.39% | 1.813% |
| 78 | 1.96% | 2.22% | 2.576% | 1.20% | 1.32% | 1.713% |
| 79 | 1.86% | 2.08% | 2.431% | 1.15% | 1.26% | 1.614% |
| 80 | 1.78% | 1.95% | 2.285% | 1.11% | 1.19% | 1.516% |
| 81 | 1.66% | 1.80% | 2.186% | 1.05% | 1.12% | 1.426% |
| 82 | 1.56% | 1.66% | 2.080% | 0.99% | 1.05% | 1.334% |
| 83 | 1.45% | 1.52% | 1.933% | 0.93% | 0.99% | 1.241% |
| 84 | 1.36% | 1.39% | 1.726% | 0.88% | 0.92% | 1.149% |
| 85 | 1.26% | 1.26% | 1.534% | 0.82% | 0.86% | 1.059% |
| 86 | 1.18% | 1.17% | 1.437% | 0.76% | 0.80% | 1.002% |
| 87 | 1.10% | 1.09% | 1.339% | 0.71% | 0.74% | 0.941% |
| 88 | 1.02% | 1.01% | 1.238% | 0.66% | 0.69% | 0.878% |
| 89 | 0.95% | 0.94% | 1.138% | 0.61% | 0.63% | 0.799% |
| 90 | 0.88% | 0.88% | 1.040% | 0.56% | 0.59% | 0.686% |
| 91 | 0.82% | 0.81% | 1.034% | 0.52% | 0.54% | 0.632% |
| 92 | 0.76% | 0.76% | 0.929% | 0.48% | 0.50% | 0.577% |
| 93 | 0.70% | 0.70% | 0.823% | 0.44% | 0.46% | 0.522% |
| 94 | 0.66% | 0.66% | 0.738% | 0.41% | 0.42% | 0.469% |
| 95 | 0.61% | 0.61% | 0.653% | 0.37% | 0.39% | 0.418% |
| 96 | 0.57% | 0.57% | 0.651% | 0.34% | 0.36% | 0.418% |
| 97 | 0.53% | 0.53% | 0.653% | 0.31% | 0.33% | 0.403% |
| 98 | 0.49% | 0.49% | 0.601% | 0.29% | 0.30% | 0.347% |
| 99 | 0.46% | 0.45% | 0.512% | 0.26% | 0.28% | 0.297% |
| 100 | 0.42% | 0.42% | 0.436% | 0.24% | 0.25% | 0.253% |
| 101 | 0.39% | 0.39% | 0.436% | 0.22% | 0.23% | 0.253% |
| 102 | 0.37% | 0.37% | 0.436% | 0.20% | 0.21% | 0.253% |
| 103 | 0.34% | 0.34% | 0.436% | 0.18% | 0.19% | 0.253% |
| 104 | 0.32% | 0.31% | 0.436% | 0.17% | 0.17% | 0.253% |
| 105~ | 0.29% | 0.29% | 0.436% | 0.15% | 0.16% | 0.253% |
